Dubai Real EstateWhat is happening in Dubai real estate
Executive pulse
Over Trailing 12 months, deal count is 14% below the prior 12 months and registered value is 14% below the prior 12 months. Oct 2026 printed 13,341 sales — 23% below Mar 2026. Off-plan is 25% of trailing value (AED 172B); ready is the other 75%. Palm Jumeirah leads district price growth at +24.8% YoY; Marina is the soft tape (-11.4%). Emaar still clears the most registered value (AED 58.5B, 41% share).
Trailing 12 months versus Prior 12 months · last print Oct 2026 · busiest month Jan 2026
↓ 14% vs Prior 12 months
AED 499B registered · not listings
DLD median on sale procedures, AED / sqft
Average deal size on the same sale tape
How many deals actually registered
Monthly registered sales. March stays marked when it is the shock trough — read count and value as the same story.
What buyers actually paid per sqft
Median registered AED / sqft. Toggle apartments vs villas; this is sold price, not portal ask.
Where the money actually clears
Where the TTM tape actually clears — share of deals, median, and price YoY. Hot means growth plus depth, not marketing.
| District | Median AED/sqft | Vol Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1,475 | 43.4% | +1.7% | |
| 2,385 | 25.1% | +0.5% | |
| 2,439 | 11% | +1.1% | |
| 2,420 | 9.6% | +0.4% | |
| 2,247 | 6.7% | -11.4% | |
| 3,881 | 4.2% | +24.8% |
Who is clearing the most value
Trailing-12-month registered value. Rank is liquidity, not quality.
- 1.EmaarAED 58.5B
- 2.BinghattiAED 20B
- 3.AziziAED 15.6B
- 4.SobhaAED 14.7B
- 5.Dubai Hills EstateAED 13.2B
- 6.DamacAED 12.2B
- 7.Dubai Creek HarbourAED 8.9B
When the tape was busy — 2025
Relative activity by month. Darker is a busier segment, not a price forecast.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apartments | ||||||||||||
| Villas |
Off-plan versus ready
Ready / secondary share is material — resale comps are thickening in key districts.
Ready / secondary share is material — resale comps are thickening in key districts.
What changed and why it matters
Live reads from the same DLD tape — not a news feed.
- ↗Palm Jumeirah momentum+24.8% median price YoY with 4.2% of TTM deal count.
- ⚠Marina softeningMedian price -11.4% YoY — ready inventory and supply clusters weigh on comps.
- ↗Emaar leads volumeAED 59B registered value (41% share) in the trailing 12 months.
- ↗Bay Square outperforming+52.8% DLD-measured appreciation (12m) in Business Bay.
- ⚠Binghatti Elite under pressure-37.7% appreciation with 145 sales — check delivery wave overlap.
How we got here
2022 → 2026. Read top to bottom: shock, inflow, peak, pause, now.
- BottomQ2 2022Post-COVID supply surgeLegacy districts saw brief price dips as inventory cleared; Dubai pivot to remote-work hub began.
- InflectionQ4 2022Capital flight to DubaiGeopolitical flows lifted off-plan launches; Russian and CIS buyers accelerated marina and villa demand.
- +47% volH1 2023Off-plan absorbs demandRegistered volumes surged ~47% YoY; JVC and Business Bay led transaction depth.
- MaturityH2 2023 – 2024Institutional & family-office entryPrime villas and branded residences tightened; citywide price/m² set new cycle highs.
- All-time high2025Peak momentumRecord deal values before selective moderation; supply pipeline concentrated in mid-market apartments.
- TroughMar 2026Regional shock — volume pauseWeekly DLD sales fell sharply; price/m² held in a narrow band — buyers waited, sellers rarely panicked.
- RecoveringQ2 2026Activity normalizingTransaction count recovering from March trough; selective bargain hunting replaces momentum FOMO.
Projects gaining
12-month DLD appreciation on registered closes — not listing ask.
- +52.8%Bay SquareBusiness Bay · Business Bay
- +41.0%Dubai StarPreatoni · Jumeirah Islands
- +32.1%Address The BayEmaar · Dubai Harbour
- +29.1%Taiyo ResidencesContinental Investments Lmd · Wasl Gate
- +28.3%Jumeirah ParkJumeirah Park · Jumeirah Park
- +25.1%Business Avenue Bb1Al Mazaya Holding Company · Jumeirah Lakes Towers
- +23.9%Hado By BeyondSandy Shores ·
- +23.5%Ellington House IiEh 2 · Dubai Hills
Projects Under Pressure
12m DLD appreciation
- -37.7%Binghatti EliteBinghatti · International Media Production Zone
- -36.8%Binghatti RoyaleBinghatti · JVC
- -30.0%Auresta TowerTiger · JVC
- -27.4%The BoroughIconic Vista · JVC
- -24.7%Peninsula FiveSelect Group · Business Bay
- -22.9%Prestige One ResidencesPrestige Luxe ·
- -22.0%Binghatti RubyBinghatti · JVC
- -21.1%Sobha Creek vistas ReserveSobha · Sobha Hartland
Macro view is not enough for your deal
Run Offer Verdict to compare your broker quote with registered comps in that exact project.
All metrics from Dubai Land Department registered transactions. DLD data may lag 1–2 days. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Not investment advice.